Ok, so I wanted to blog this individual hand up only for my own protection. This last tournament we were fairly deep and a couple spots from the money, the play was pretty tight as usual and everybody who has been playing at the Big O has a strong grasp of all the players and their particular style. Normally, the core players at the Big O never make bad calls or calls that don't give them the right odds. The blinds were 3,000 /6,000, there were around 6-7 players, just a couple or few spots from the money as stated earlier. I was the small blind, and the newby, Megan, was the big blind. Jim was second to act at the table, he pushed all in for around 27,000. Everybody around the table folded, it got back to me........I had pocket 2's. I looked at my stack and had around 80k, I DID NOT PUT HIM ON A POCKET PAIR. I called, Megan quickly folded. If I lost the hand then it would have left me JUST under average stack. Jim flipped over A7 offsuite...........best I could ask for, no pocket pair.
Jim's hand
My hand
My hand
Here are the exact percentages of the hand with only 2 people going into the flop.
Jim: 47.31% to win (with A7 offsuite)
Mike: 52.10% to win (with pocket 2's)
Jim missed the entire flop: K 10 8 (i think this was the flop), then hit a A on the turn, which obviously crushed me leaving me a two outer for the win.
My whole point for blogging this particular hand is that even though I had the lowest pair in the deck, I still had him beat preflop. Reading the players is the most important ability in poker, yes, I do misread from time to time, but being able to read players is what helps a person in the long run, reason being, it helps win tournaments. On the contrary, waiting for made hands all night can still turn out to be disastrous, so again, its not always about the two hole cards in front of you. (In my opinion.)
If I could get some feedback that would be great........everybody have a good week!
20 comments:
I laughed aloud when I saw that hand...not because I was laughing at you...but it just seemed like a funny (brave) move at that point in the game (not heads up and not full table). I really thought you had it on the turn, though, but the river was no big suprise (he had 2 overs afterall). Mike B.
thanks for the comment...(u meant had it on the flop), because i thought I had it too, I couldn't have asked for a better flop, seven on turn, oh well, he had six outs at that point
Mikey,
I think you made a good call, and when the cards were turned over you were slightly ahead. The classic coin toss situations. Poker has alot to do with timing...and winning races, and you made the right call at that time (luckily)..(did i mention "luck" has alot to do with poker)...and after the flop you were a 70% favorite to win the hand. Your call was even looking more right at that time. Too bad you got unlucky on the turn. If he doesnt hit the turn..you are almost certain to win the hand. Oh well..It's poker...and I'd call Jim's all in with 2 3 off suite in any position to try to knock out Jim and send him tilting home! :)
yeah i know, it was a daring call but you know what, the whole lesson was that the right call was made. i know luck in poker is the ultimate decider on who wins but with the right calls a persons luck can be decreased significanlty
What a donkey... how is this any worse than the call I (Scott) made, I put you an a small pocket pair and was tired of you re-raising me. From one Donkey to another, I know how it feels, it has happen to me as well on many occasions, that's why I have decided to from now on to call with the worst hand, but only when I'm in a hand with Mickey... Sorry Mike.
well to answer your question Scott, the all in from Jim at that point of the game wouldn't have hurt me as much if i lost as you would have yourself, i still had enough chips to back up my call. but again, every squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile : )
The problem here is he got lucky I wasn't holdong any pocket pair JJ or less. You would jam in my chip situation in my position with any of those hands.
People interpret "guesses" as reads. It was at best a guess. A good guess mind you.
Also, it was a "call" for 1/3 of his stack and bettered my chance to money. Why race for 1/3 of your stack?
I think if Mikey had the 27K he goes deeper in the money. Nuff said.
thanks for the comment jim. i agree that people take guesses, because obviously people can't see through the cards. you may be right about the 1/3 of my stack but although it was, it still put me square with the rest of the entire table in chips, so i felt like i had a shot even after the call
I see your point. Please consider ths: you have to put me on at least 50/50 that I have a pair here. If I do, 22 is dominated.
So, at 50/50 that you are a 4:1 dog and 50/50 that you are racing you are looking at a 3 to 1 chance to take the pot without any flop information.
Based on the pot, 9K + 27K = 36K, you need to call 27K to win 36K. 1.3 to 1. Much lower than 3:1.
If the pot is at 81K, you made an even percentage call.
With the pot at 36K - it's not a good call, you need 81K or higher - me thinks.
Michael,
Don't worry about it. You made a call that you felt was right. Technically it was a "bad" call but who cares. Just tell everyone to F@#$ off and just move on...
Stacey
well with my guess,came the math with the hand,and mathematically, the numbers are with me. at that point i thought the 2's were good and i got what I asked for, no pair from jim. i knew megan with her previous play would fold so it would have been me and jim heads up. its hard to negate a hand when the math is against you, but i agree with you jim and stacy....in that case, the pot may not have been right but my read was right, and that is what i was going off of to take jim's $10 dollar bounty, i was simply willing to risk that amount
I was gonna put the math out there but Jim beat me to it.
You mentioned you didn't put him on a pocket pair. Why is that?
At this point in the tournament and with his stack his range to jam preflop is pretty wide but would most definitely include any pocket pair.
I would put his range on any pair, any Ace, JT and up giving him around 56% equity vs. your 44%.
I think Jim's estimates of 50% pocket pair and 50% race situation are pretty close. But if you knew for a fact he didn't have a pair that obviously makes things closer.
With all that mumbo jumbo out of the way...I think it was a poor call. You are good enough of a player where you could have folded and waited for a better spot to put that much of your stack at risk.
What was the exacts on the hand you played against Scott? (QJ vs. JJ) I don't remember what the blinds were or the stack sizes.
On our hand it was JJ vs QJ the raise was around 65,000 at this point I would still have had 45-50,000 left, pre-flop not a good call, but like you said Mike it was a guess and I gambled that I was racing against a small pair. Yes, I got lucky and hit my 3 outer... it has hapened to me on several occasions and I know your pain... next time I'm sure the roles and outcome will be revered.
just blame mike baaaaaa....hdk
(just kidding baaa)
mondo, in the hand involving me and scott, scott was ahead of me for table position and I was right after him. I believe Scott was UTG and raised to around 20k when blinds were 5/10k. He had QJ offsuite, I looked down at JJ and jammed. It was around 6o-65k more for him to call. So this call for scott would have devistated him worse than my call against jim.
All I know is Rocky is the one in the end that got screwed...
Did you see that picture?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!
Mook was pretty easy on him, making him the pitcher.
I am really glad you posted this, your blog got some major action!
Mike, I thought the raise was 65,000 total which would have only been 45,000 more to me... wow I must realy be a Donkey :)
haha, thats what im sayin buddy, you donk scott, no im jk, if u put me on a lower pair then what the hell, go for it ehh?? my only argument was that it would have devastated you more than myself if u had lost than me losing to jim.
I would not call Henry with ducks....I would call him with 2 3 at that point in the game though. Mike B.
(just kidding Henry)
(or not)
(maybe)
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